I think normally I'd want to look at results from longer than one year in office. I don't have to tell you, Mr. President, that it takes time to get bills through Congress--really, to ramp up any sort new initiative. But you’re so excited about this it's got me excited too. Just... could you specify which of your policies has been most instrumental in dropping the African American unemployment rate? That would help a lot. At the moment I can't put my finger on what you've done to achieve it, and if I'm really going to school JAY-Z, I'll need details. Point me to a policy of yours with this sort of immediate, positive impact on the lives of African Americans and I’ll brag it up.

Also, we should probably provide JAY-Z with some context. A little historical perspective can be so effective in opening one's eyes to the truth. Maybe we should look over, say, the last ten years, and see where your administration fits in. 

Don't worry Donald, I've got this one! I've got some charts and graphs here that really lay it out straight. With you so hyped-up about black unemployment, I'm assuming you've been focused on it for quite a while, am I right? So I’m not showing you anything you don't already know. This is for JAY-Z. 

The two graphics on top (1a and 1b) give you--uh, him--a couple of ways to look at data illustrating the severe rise and fall of the last decade's overall unemployment rates. That was a scary and painful period, wasn't it?
​
The graph on the left (1a) shows the percentage of unemployment (numbered along the left side) and the year (along the bottom). Next to that is a chart (1b) breaking the numbers down by month.  

Below that are two graphics (2a and 2b) showing numbers specifically for African American unemployment over the same period.

Clearly, Mr. President, you are right to make a big deal out of this. It's been a harrowing ten years. Devastating. You look at this data and get a stark reminder of what we Americans went through during the recession. It also makes clear--since you brought it up--how hard African Americans were hit, with unemployment topping out at a catastrophic 16.8% in March of 2010. 

Now, there's no overlooking the dramatic fall in these numbers that took place during the eight-year term of President Barack Obama. His administration cut unemployment by more than half, from 10% at it’s highest, to 4.7% when he left office. Over five percentage points. And nine percentage points were erased in unemployment for African Americans, down to 7.8%.

But we're not talking about him, are we, Mr. President? We're talking about you, and the policies you rushed through this year to bring that latter number down another point, to its current 6.8%. I’ll focus most on that last percentage point when I'm straightening out JAY-Z.

There’s one last piece of advice I need before I reach out to him. I pulled the numbers for these graphics from the website of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). No doubt, this is the correct, original source for these numbers. The BLS is the federal agency tasked with compiling and reporting the official monthly US jobs report. 

But you and your supporters, notably the folks at Fox News, spent those eight years deriding that monthly report as fraudulent. You urged us not to believe the reports, said the books were cooked, the numbers were made up, that the methods used to calculate them were deceptive. Each month, when the US jobs report came out, you urged Americans to disregard it. 

Well, your numbers come from the same report, Mr. President. The statistics are calculated the same way now as during President Obama's tenure. In fact, it is much the same, straightforward report that has been set forth by the Bureau of Labor Statistics since 1925. The only changes in methodology have been to improve their precision and scope.  

So guide me here; either Barack Obama managed to lead the country out of the recession and into a stable economy before you took over, cutting African American and overall unemployment in half, or we can't trust the numbers. Let me know how you want to frame that, in case JAY-Z mentions it.   

Oh – and I've thought of something sure to impress him. If you could . . . do some more policies, something to reduce that embarrassing disparity in unemployment rates by race, you might even score a shout out on his next album.  

​Awaiting your direction.

​The comments I got back were a mix of "thank you for saying that," and "we'd be crazy to overlook Oprah," and honestly, some of the latter ones were compelling. I was reminded of my feelings of awe, watching Winfrey deliver a soaring commencement address, and of how impressed I was with her founding of a leadership academy for South African girls. I think some of her most serious work can disappear behind her outsize personality and pop culture profile.
 
It also hit me that I should have focused more attentively on Oprah’s whole Golden Globe speech before popping off about public reaction to it. I’d only seen snippets and highlights. I sat down and watched it from start to finish and it stirred me. She centered our country’s current situation within the context of recent US history, using a perspective both social and personal. And she’s charismatic—she helped me feel we are strong and unified and can prevail. I understand better why it moved so many people.
 
Without question, Oprah Winfrey has decades of wide-ranging experience. Through her endeavors she has undoubtedly fostered positive change in the world. Her Golden Globe speech was powerful. But this is not a Winfrey For President post. On the other hand, it’s not an Oprah Don’t Run post either. When it comes to the next presidential campaign, we're still safely snuggled in the seat of hypotheticals, probabilities, and conjecture. I'm going to bask in that as long as I can. The job of carefully evaluating official candidates will come soon enough.
 
I think progressives share an unspoken sense of the responsibility we will have once that soon enough arrives. We do know this; the next election will be profoundly important whether or not Robert Mueller has made his way high enough by then to force a personnel change at the top. We know such a change won’t solve everything. No matter how far down the line of succession this current bunch has to go to replace their latest mistake, that great office will continue to be stained as long as they are in it.  
 
We'll have a number of concerns to juggle as we select our next nominee, and electability is a major factor. That is surely one reason for the clamoring for Winfrey to run. We have to win in 2020. The task of getting it right is daunting, our responsibility nerve-wracking.
 
But we have time, and the prospects are plentiful. If you don't see that now, remember, you don't have to yet. Relish that. When the time comes, let's see who steps up and listen to what each of them has to say. We will make the right choice, as long as we do a few essential things.
 
We must be extraordinarily patient and thoughtful as we’re deciding which candidate to support. As the campaigns start in earnest, we'll all have gut reactions, initial conceptions, early favorites. We can’t let those early impressions harden too fast. Let the information flow in. We must listen so closely to everything they say. These people are running for president. We have to demand more, better debates and town halls and in-depth interviews, with hard questions and time provided for real answers. Let’s show each sponsoring media outlet that we are willing to--want to--stay tuned and sort through the details.
 
We have to read. Please, people. Not just the blog posts and social media commentary but the articles. Not just their headlines and lead paragraphs, whole articles. We have to dig deeper. Go to the candidates’ websites and click past the neat little summaries of issue stances and on to more substantive policy statements. If a website doesn’t go that deep, ask for more, and pay attention to what you get back. Meanwhile look for more on their positions elsewhere.  
 
Keep remembering, these people are running for president. How much time will we make for this process, coming soon enough? This whole thing is up to us. How much work will we put in? I don’t mean canvassing for your candidate once chosen, or getting out the vote. Before that. Will we make enough time to truly hear out the folks who are asking for our votes? They must make their case. Let’s be slow to line up behind any one contender. This will be hard. I know I will probably have an early sense of where my support should go. But I can pledge to try to take it all in first.
 
There’s another thing we have to do if we’re going to set things right. I feel both the urgency of it and a dread that we won’t do it. We have to be nice to each other throughout the process. Does that sound trite? It isn’t. Should it go without saying? It doesn’t. Let’s hope we’ve learned our lesson. Paying attention to how we treat each other throughout such a trying, far-reaching endeavor is not shallow or banal, it isn’t automatic or easy, and this does need to be said. We have to do this together. We have to be patient, treat each other well, and keep our eyes on the prize when there is conflict.
 
So lower your voice - no really. Dude. Lower your voice. Breathe and wait before hitting send. Be nice. Cultivate humility. Walk things back. I made myself do that here, about the Winfrey speech. It's hard, but, as it turns out, not that hard. I bet practice will make it even easier. Let’s practice this stuff now before soon enough arrives.  

Is all this even possible??? I don’t know. These are the things we always say we will do. Will we finally do them? I don’t know. But we have to try.
 
So, Oprah 2020? Why not? Who knows? But she'll have to take one of hopefully many spots on the stage and set about convincing us. Who will be up there beside her if she goes? Who else is out there? Let's wait and see. Let’s ease into this slowly, let the field develop, listen hard, read everything, ask for information, make an informed, studied choice, and treat each other with kindness in the process.
 
Soon enough is coming.
 
Let's be careful out there.